The nation in context: how intergroup relations shape the discursive construction of identity continuity and discontinuity

The perceived collective continuity (PCC) of a national identity serves as a crucial source of stability and self‐esteem for group members. Recent work has explored the consequences of perceived continuity when the meaning of a nation’s past is seen in a negative light, and the challenges this brings for the negotiation of a positive identity in the present, signalling the potential value of perceived discontinuity The current paper extends this literature by examining the role of intergroup relations in the construction of both collective continuities and discontinuities. Through analysing the discursive management of national identity in nine focus groups in a post‐conflict context (Serbia, N = 67), we reveal how the tensions between continuity and discontinuity are embedded within a broader discussion of the nation’s relationship with relevant national outgroups across its history. The findings contribute to theoretical knowledge on the interlinking of national identity and PCC by illustrating the ways in which intergroup relations of the past shape the extent to which continuity is seen as desirable or undesirable. We argue that despite the psychological merits of collective continuity, discontinuity can become attractive and useful when there is limited space to challenge how a nation’s history is remembered and the valence given to the past. The paper concludes by offering an account of how social and political contexts can influence the nature, functions, and valence of PCC within national identities

Regaining In-Group Continuity in Times of Anxiety about the Group's Future : A Study on the Role of Collective Nostalgia Across 27 Countries

Collective nostalgia for the good old days of the country thrives across the world. However, little is known about the social psychological dynamics of this collective emotion across cultures. We predicted that collective nostalgia is triggered by collective angst as it helps people to restore a sense of in-group continuity via stronger in-group belonging and out-group rejection (in the form of opposition to immigrants). Based on a sample (N = 5,956) of individuals across 27 countries, the general pattern of results revealed that collective angst predicts collective nostalgia, which subsequently relates to stronger feelings of in-group continuity via in-group belonging (but not via out-group rejection). Collective nostalgia generally predicted opposition to immigrants, but this was subsequently not related to in-group continuity. © 2018 Hogrefe Publishing.Peer reviewe

Unit Roots and Cointegration

We investigate how the possible presence of unit roots and cointegration affects forecasting with Big Data. As most macroeoconomic time series are very persistent and may contain unit roots, a proper handling of unit roots and cointegration is of paramount importance for macroeconomic forecasting. The high-dimensional nature of Big Data complicates the analysis of unit roots and cointegration in two ways. First, transformations to stationarity require performing many unit root tests, increasing room for errors in the classification. Second, modelling unit roots and cointegration directly is more difficult, as standard high-dimensional techniques such as factor models and penalized regression are not directly applicable to (co)integrated data and need to be adapted. We provide an overview of both issues and review methods proposed to address these issues. These methods are also illustrated with two empirical applications

Observation and simulation of ethane at 23 FTIR sites

Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) in the Earthatmosphere. Its main sources are of anthropogenic origin, with globally62% from leakage during production and transport of natural gas, 20%from biofuel combustion and 18% from biomass burning. In the Southernhemisphere, anthropogenic emissions are lower which makes biomassburning emissions a more significant source. The main removal process isoxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH), leading to a mean atmosphericlifetime of 2 months. Until recently, a prolonged decrease of itsabundance has been documented, at rates of -1 to -2.7%/yr, with globalemissions dropping from 14 to 11 Tg/yr over 1984-2010 owing tosuccessful measures reducing fugitive emissions from its fossil fuelsources. However, subsequent investigations have reported on an upturnin the ethane trend, characterized by a sharp rise from about 2009onwards. The ethane increase is attributed to the oil and natural gasproduction boom in North America, although significant changes in OHcould also be at play. In the present contribution, we report the trendof ethane at 23 ground-based Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) sitesspanning the 80ºN to 79ºS latitude range. Over 2010-2015, asignificant ethane rise of 3-5%/yr is determined for most sites in theNorthern Hemisphere, while for the Southern hemisphere the rates ofchanges are not significant at the 2-sigma uncertainty level . Dedicatedmodel simulations by EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry;1.8×1.8 degrees) implementing various emission scenarios areincluded in order to support data interpretation. The usualunderestimation of the NMHCs emissions in the main inventories isconfirmed here for RCP85 (Representative Concentration Pathway Databasev8.5). Scaling them by 1.5 is needed to capture the background levels ofatmospheric ethane. Moreover, additional and significant emissions ( 7Tg over 2009-2015) are needed to capture the ethane rise in the Northernhemisphere. Attributing them to the oil and gas sector and locating themin North America allows EMAC to produce adequate trends in the Northernhemisphere, but not in the Southern hemisphere, where they areoverestimated. Possible causes for this difference are discussed

Observation and simulation of ethane (C2H6) at 23 FTIR sites

Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) in the Earth atmosphere. Its main sources are of anthropogenic origin, with globally 62% from leakage during production and transport of natural gas, 20% from biofuel combustion and 18% from biomass burning. In the Southern hemisphere, anthropogenic emissions are lower which makes biomass burning emissions a more significant source. The main removal process is oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH), leading to a mean atmospheric lifetime of 2 months. Until recently, a prolonged decrease of its abundance has been documented, at rates of -1 to -2.7%/yr, with global emissions dropping from 14 to 11 Tg/yr over 1984-2010 owing to successful measures reducing fugitive emissions from its fossil fuel sources. However, subsequent investigations have reported on an upturn in the ethane trend, characterized by a sharp rise from about 2009 onwards. The ethane increase is attributed to the oil and natural gas production boom in North America, although significant changes in OH could also be at play.In the present contribution, we report the trend of ethane at 23 ground-based Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) sites spanning the 80ºN to 79ºS latitude range. Over 2010-2015, a significant ethane rise of 3-5%/yr is determined for most sites in the Northern Hemisphere, while for the Southern hemisphere the rates of changes are not significant at the 2-sigma uncertainty level. Dedicated model simulations by EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry; ~1.8×1.8 degrees) implementing various emission scenarios are included in order to support data interpretation. The usual underestimation of the NMHCs emissions in the main inventories is confirmed here for RCP85 (Representative Concentration Pathway Database v8.5). Scaling them by 1.5 is needed to capture the background levels of atmospheric ethane. Moreover, additional and significant emissions (~7 Tg over 2009-2015) are needed to capture the ethane rise in the Northern hemisphere. Attributing them to the oil and gas sector and locating them in North America allows EMAC to produce adequate trends in the Northern hemisphere, but not in the Southern hemisphere, where they are overestimated. Possible causes for this difference are discussed